Investor Soiree Butler Greenko Group GKO.L

Take me straight down to the chat Greenko Group is trading below the moving 50 day average and below the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
Follow the trades of top traders with Ayondo.

572 of 1490
Overall Rating
Click for the Top 100
12 of 15
Utilities Rating
Click for all the Utilities Ratings
51p
Previous Close
Real time prices at ADVFN
GKO in the Media
GKO on Twitter
Get Rich Slowly: The Unconventional Guide to Mastering Your Money
4 Shares to Buy in 2015
Greenko Group on ETX Capital
Investor Soiree Top 5 Discussed UK Shares Widget
your ad here

Greenko Group discussion on ADVFN

ADVFN

Get up to speed on all the Greenko Group discussion over on ADVFN's excellent UK investor forums.

Select from 1490 Investor Soiree share pages


or check out the Investor Soiree Top 100 Shares by Rank list.

Spread the good Greenko Group word on social media


or follow AIM Soiree on Twitter, Facebook, Google+ and Linkedin.

  • Re: Article in today's IC by farmerdave
    Thu, 14 May 2015 11:06:00 GMT

    r thanks for posting that. I agree the dilution is a problem but a big issue is if you add up their assets - 1,200 MW operating and value it at market you get 720m USD (at 0.6m a mw - a lot of hydro and wind in india is trading at less) which exceeds its debt pile with or without dilution.
    At present the share can only be an option on the recovery of renewable assets in India.
    I also have a few problems with the accounts
    The MI interest shown in the notes do not add up to the balance sheet
    Cash interest of 56m is not reconciled to the P&L - I presume they are capitalising some
    56m interest is equal to their op cash flow !

    If they held their assets at the lower of cost or market value the write down would take the co into -ve equity with the pref share holders at Greenko Mauritius and Greenko Wind ending up with most assets

    I do not know enough of the terms of their debt etc to know how this will pan out but worrying times

    FYI I am not a holder but am sitting watching
    FD By farmerdave
  • Article in today's IC by r21442
    Tue, 12 May 2015 11:57:00 GMT

    Shares in Aim-traded shares in Greenko (GKO:70p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013).

    Having hit a high of 180p at the end of September 2014, Greenko's share price fell steadily thereafter and I subsequently downgraded my view to hold when the price was 104p after it became apparent that the operational progress the company has been delivering is being undermined by its capital structure ('Small cap updates', 31 March 2015). Clearly, some investors headed for the exit as Greenko's share price declined a further 20 per cent to 82.5p by the time analysts at brokerage Investec released a note in mid-April with a 150p revised target price.

    In that note to clients, Investec's utilities analyst Harold Hutchinson noted: "We believe the recent share sell off reflects some shareholders' concern on Greenko's financing structure. This has been magnified by the potential conversion of the Government of Singapore (GIC) (which invested £100m in Greenko Mauritius in 2013) and Global Environment Emerging Markets (invested in 2009) minorities into ordinary shares in the near future. The original GIC investment at a subsidiary level offered re-assurance to ordinary shareholders in terms of capital commitment. The need now is for Greenko's capital structure to be simplified and organised to ensure a recovery in confidence of all shareholders."



    Calculating the level of potential dilution

    The issue of dilution to existing shareholders is the one I raised in my article at the end of March. That's because GIC has the right to exchange its 17.38 per cent interest in Greenko Mauritius into a minimum of 44.8m Greenko ordinary shares anytime between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. However, the number of new ordinary shares to be issued is capped to prevent GIC from owning more than 29.9 per cent of Greenko's enlarged ordinary share capital. Greenko currently has 155.8m shares in issue.

    So with Greenko's share price significantly lower than at the time when GIC made its original investment, then GIC could end up owning a minority interest in Greenko Mauritius as well as being issued with a slug of new equity in Greenko. Global Environment Emerging Markets (GEF) has the right to exchange its 14.09 per cent interest in Greenko Mauritius into a minimum of 29.1m Greenko ordinary shares anytime between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017.

    To put the interests of both GIC and GEF into some perspective, Investec calculate that GEF's interest in Greenko Mauritius would convert into 75m new Greenko shares based on its present value of $113m (£75m) and using a share price on conversion of 100p; and 70 per cent of the GIC interest would be satisfied by the issue of 99m new Greenko shares based on a present value of its investment of $210m (£140m). But because of the 29.9 per cent shareholder cap, GIC would also retain an interest in Greenko Mauritius worth £40m. As a result, Investec have factored in a raised share count of 329m, up from 156m currently, assuming conversion occurs on 1 January 2016 and a share price of 100p being accepted by both GIC and GEF. This is significantly higher than Greenko's current share price.

    It's possible that both GIC and GEF would accept conversion of their minority interests under these terms as it would enable Greenko to simplify its balance sheet and funding structure, remove the issue of dilution that is undermining sentiment, and enable investors to focus on the strong operational progress the company is actually making. Greenko's operating profit is expected to more than double from $55.6m in the 2014 fiscal year (nine month period due to change of year-end), to $121m in 2015, and $174m in 2016, according to analysts at both brokerage Arden and Investec.



    An issue that needs addressing

    The issue of GIC's and GEF's minority interests needs sorting out By r21442
  • Re: nosedive by phonic
    Tue, 12 May 2015 09:17:00 GMT

    Exchange Rate? By phonic
  • nosedive by Furnace100
    Mon, 11 May 2015 11:16:00 GMT

    Something is not right here, I contacted GKO about 10 days ago and they indicated that all is well and that they are still on target for 1000 MW this year. Can anyone shed any light in what is happening to the share price? By Furnace100
  • Any ideas why the constant drop? by the last night trader
    Thu, 07 May 2015 16:23:00 GMT

    In theory these are growth shares in a growth market, hit all their targets etc

    any ideas why they are bombing?? By the last night trader
  • Re: Latest IC comment by The Preston Plumber
    Fri, 01 May 2015 09:05:00 GMT

    When is the share price going to stop falling over a cliff? By The Preston Plumber
  • Latest IC comment by r21442
    Tue, 31 Mar 2015 11:27:00 GMT

    Aim-traded shares in Greenko





























    (GKO: 104p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p a couple of years ago ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013), but operationally the company continues to hit its milestones.

    Following a change of financial year-end, power generation of 1,565GWh in the nine months to end December 2014 was 46 per cent higher than in the previous 12-month period to produce an increase in revenues from $71m to $100m, slightly better than analysts had anticipated. There was an earnings beat, too: adjusted pre-tax profit of $35m (£23.6m) was $5m ahead of forecast even though a net finance charge of $40m was $6m higher than predicted, a consequence of the board’s decision to sensibly hedge out the currency risk on its US dollar denominated debt. Last year, Greenko successfully raised $550m (£369m) though a five-year bond issued on the Singapore Stock Exchange and secured a US$125m (£84m) six-year credit line from EIG Global Energy Partners.

    Importantly, the company looks set fair for the year ahead with the board reiterating guidance yesterday to hit operating generating capacity of 1GW during 2015, up from 715MW at the end of last year. The company currently has 550MW of wind and hydro projects under construction, and a further 1,350 MW at the development stage.

    But there are a few negatives, too. Firstly, shareholders will have to wait for an inaugural dividend as the board now intend to consider a cash return at the time of the interim results in September. Analyst Adam Forsyth at Arden Partners had forecast a 2.5c a share dividend alongside this week's figures.

    Secondly, factoring in slightly higher operating costs, cash profits for the 2015 fiscal year have been pared back a few percentage points to $121m, albeit this still represents a hefty increase on the $80m announced for the nine month reporting period in 2014. However, the hit to the pre-tax line is far greater. That’s because after accounting for the impact of higher net interest charges, and stripping out a $6.3m non-cash gain on acquisitions, Arden have sliced their 2015 pre-tax profit estimate by a quarter to $44.4m on revenues 85 per cent higher to $185m. Mr Forsyth has also adjusted his post-tax earnings estimates to account for a high minorities’ charge which means that Greenko is now expected to make net profits this year of $28.3m, rather than $47m previously forecast. That’s a big difference and on an EPS basis the downgrade is even greater partly due to dilution from the EIG warrants issued on the above fundraise, but also taking into account shares to be issued from previous fundraises.


    Impact on EPS estimates

    The Government of Singapore (GIC) which invested £100m a couple of years ago in Greenko Mauritius, and Global Environment Emerging Markets (invested in 2009), have the right to exchange their investments for shares in Greenko between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. This will lead to at least 74m new shares being issued. As a result Mr Forsyth now factors in an issued share capital of 243m shares this year, up from 153m at the end of 2014, rather than 210m in his previous estimates. The net result of all these adjustments is that Arden now expects Greenko to report EPS of 11.6¢ in 2015, or 7.9p a share, half his previous estimate.

    The positive is that this still represents a step change on the EPS figure of 6.1¢ reported for the last fiscal year. And with the roll-out of the new power plants on track, then it’s realistic to expect Greenko to hit Mr Forsyth’s revenue figure of $258m for 2016. On this basis, cash profits rise again to $174m to produce pre-tax profits of $68.7m and EPS of 16.5¢, or 11p at current exchange rates. This means the shares are still only being rated on about 9 times earnings estimates for 2016, hardly a high rating for company tha By r21442
  • Im In! by phonic
    Mon, 30 Mar 2015 12:35:00 GMT

    Good company this! By phonic
  • Citywire article on AIM shares for ISA by r21442
    Wed, 25 Mar 2015 15:27:00 GMT

    link

    "I have decided to buy Greenko Group (GKO) a growing renewable energy company in India which is building a ‘derisked’ portfolio of biomass, natural gas, hydropower and wind. The share price has been held back by an overhang of stock from a legacy fund.

    The company has a good record of execution and should share in the very powerful Indian growth story: the country's last budget saw a quadrupling of spending in renewable energy. The robust tariff gives doubled earnings in the year to March and doubling again to 2016.

    Fund group Impax owns 4% of the company and has a target price of 170p (the shares were trading at 105p yesterday). However, there will be no dividend as profits are used to grow the business and pay down the substantial debt." By r21442
  • SP nearing 5 year low by Valuespotter
    Mon, 09 Mar 2015 10:13:00 GMT

    Hard to see the downside here (although there always is). In spite of all the progress made the SP is almost right at the bottom of its 5 year trading range, so 112p looks a good entry point to me and I've dipped a toe in here. By Valuespotter
  • analysis of trading update at 135p by thirty fifty twenty
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 12:59:00 GMT

    wow - I think this reads great!!

    sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
    an even balance between wind and hydro
    projects on time, on budget etc....
    infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
    mgt team delivering on previous promises
    economic backdrop favourable
    very confident of future....

    of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
    (actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
    but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!


    I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
    EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
    so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
    which gives some upside to H2...
    its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!

    also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
    this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
    and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth

    additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
    its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
    especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
    and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a €1bn established business

    I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
    how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times

    i was keen when the price was > 170p
    as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
    the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
    (maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)


    I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top 5 holdings
    By thirty fifty twenty
  • debt financing done at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 04 Aug 2014 07:45:00 GMT

    this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
    market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
    and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...

    the upside is (almost) limitless
    if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
    and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
    certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT

    RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
    I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.

    Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
    so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
    and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think

    so great that they looking at various options
    it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • joined the party by Binkley
    Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT

    Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
    rgds
    binks By Binkley
  • Volume by wishful thinking
    Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT

    Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
  • GKO by parkside13
    Fri, 22 May 2015 10:52:21 GMT

    The non recourse project financing if structured properly should be ok. I don't believe that wind (decent) is valued at $600k per MW. Turbines plus BOP and grid in even the cheapest jurisdictions will be £800k/MW ie $1.2m/MW and so unless there is a large impairment going on here (which may be possible I suppose) then I doubt whether wind is generally valued at that level. If they are still using project finance then operating projects can't possibly be valued at $600k EV as that doesn't work if installed costs are $1.2m/MW!! So I think the issue is a poor management team with a poor capital structure floundering! At least I hope so.
  • Debt by vspl
    Fri, 22 May 2015 10:32:23 GMT

    Often enough companies that are inclined to "exponential" expansion through debt have consequences.
  • Complete shambles by SchiffJnr
    Thu, 21 May 2015 12:16:52 GMT

    The is the second time I have invested in Indian 'Growth' story company, the first being Essar Energy. Both off the back of professional tipsters from investment magazines. I can honestly say both have been a disaster and as a regular visitor to India it should have been clear to me that the country is a mess and so are most of its businesses. I should have known better, but this is the last time I invest in an Indian business. GLA!
  • GKO response by 4family
    Mon, 18 May 2015 10:19:12 GMT

    Thanks for sharing their response. The share price is getting to be beyond a joke :( Let's hope institutional investors should be loading up soon if/when there is positive news flow soon.
  • Smart creditors dumb debtors by vspl
    Mon, 18 May 2015 09:56:31 GMT

    That sums it up with GKO.
  • El nino by spinanus
    Thu, 14 May 2015 08:50:32 GMT

    Hi, am posting this link because it does not seem to have been mentioned on this board so far. The upshot is that some of the very recent sell off may not be association with the dilution issue:

    link

  • GKO response by vspl
    Thu, 14 May 2015 05:54:31 GMT

    GKO's response to my email The management and the board is focused in resolving the issue with share price drop. The underlying business and its fundamentals are strong and tracking in line with expectations both at the financial numbers and growth plans level. The current SP drop has been a function of the concern on convertible shareholders in the subsidiary with rights to swap into PLC share may lead to significant dilution. We are actively working with institutions and convertible holders to enable clarity in the dilution and report back to the market in 2 weeks period. Post which we believe 1GW operating portfolio and strong long term financials will be reflected in the share price and recover rapidly from these levels.
  • Vspl by parkside13
    Wed, 13 May 2015 23:34:45 GMT

    You are theoretically right; trouble is the Board says nothing which heightens uncertainty. They are good engineers and an FD who can count but they need corp finance advice and the Chairman hasn't got good form here nor has the CEO. So worrying times for the ords.
  • broken capital structure by vspl
    Wed, 13 May 2015 22:28:02 GMT

    100 p being accepted by GIC and GEF does not seem to be in sync with market sentiment. Wonder if GiC and GEC could collude and force lower exchange simply with more shares. We have been give the minimum scenario by the broker but market seems to think other wise and maybe a maximum scenario.
  • continued by josborne
    Wed, 13 May 2015 20:52:04 GMT

    .... But because of the 29.9 per cent shareholder cap, GIC would also retain an interest in Greenko Mauritius worth £40m. As a result, Investec have factored in a raised share count of 329m, up from 156m currently, assuming conversion occurs on 1 January 2016 and a share price of 100p being accepted by both GIC and GEF. This is significantly higher than Greenko's current share price. It's possible that both GIC and GEF would accept conversion of their minority interests under these terms as it would enable Greenko to simplify its balance sheet and funding structure, remove the issue of dilution that is undermining sentiment, and enable investors to focus on the strong operational progress the company is actually making. Greenko's operating profit is expected to more than double from $55.6m in the 2014 fiscal year (nine month period due to change of year-end), to $121m in 2015, and $174m in 2016, according to analysts at both brokerage Arden and Investec.
  • useful article in IC -snipped from by josborne
    Wed, 13 May 2015 20:49:29 GMT

    Shares in Aim-traded shares in Greenko (GKO:70p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013). Having hit a high of 180p at the end of September 2014, Greenko's share price fell steadily thereafter and I subsequently downgraded my view to hold when the price was 104p after it became apparent that the operational progress the company has been delivering is being undermined by its capital structure ('Small cap updates', 31 March 2015). Clearly, some investors headed for the exit as Greenko's share price declined a further 20 per cent to 82.5p by the time analysts at brokerage Investec released a note in mid-April with a 150p revised target price. In that note to clients, Investec's utilities analyst Harold Hutchinson noted: "We believe the recent share sell off reflects some shareholders' concern on Greenko's financing structure. This has been magnified by the potential conversion of the Government of Singapore (GIC) (which invested £100m in Greenko Mauritius in 2013) and Global Environment Emerging Markets (invested in 2009) minorities into ordinary shares in the near future. The original GIC investment at a subsidiary level offered re-assurance to ordinary shareholders in terms of capital commitment. The need now is for Greenko's capital structure to be simplified and organised to ensure a recovery in confidence of all shareholders." Calculating the level of potential dilution The issue of dilution to existing shareholders is the one I raised in my article at the end of March. That's because GIC has the right to exchange its 17.38 per cent interest in Greenko Mauritius into a minimum of 44.8m Greenko ordinary shares anytime between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. However, the number of new ordinary shares to be issued is capped to prevent GIC from owning more than 29.9 per cent of Greenko's enlarged ordinary share capital. Greenko currently has 155.8m shares in issue. So with Greenko's share price significantly lower than at the time when GIC made its original investment, then GIC could end up owning a minority interest in Greenko Mauritius as well as being issued with a slug of new equity in Greenko. Global Environment Emerging Markets (GEF) has the right to exchange its 14.09 per cent interest in Greenko Mauritius into a minimum of 29.1m Greenko ordinary shares anytime between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. To put the interests of both GIC and GEF into some perspective, Investec calculate that GEF's interest in Greenko Mauritius would convert into 75m new Greenko shares based on its present value of $113m (£75m) and using a share price on conversion of 100p; and 70 per cent of the GIC interest would be satisfied by the issue of 99m new Greenko shares based on a present value of its investment of $210m (£140m). But because of the 29.9 per cent shareholder cap, GI
  • Loss by parkside13
    Wed, 13 May 2015 09:00:02 GMT

    Well you aren't losing yet as you haven't sold!! Look the reason the shares are falling is because of two effective loans GKO has which are reputable in shares. So the amount, the capital repayment is fixed so as the shares fall they will have to issue more shares to repay the loans and thus we (ords) get diluted. So the lower it goes the lower it goes!! Way out? Do a deal to cash settle either using cash on the BS or sell assets. They are a naive, uncommunicative and far too positive a management team and need some help I suspect. Let's hope it is the right help. They should never have done this stupid structure in the first place. Quasi equity always goes wrong.
  • Loss, loss and more loss! by Bavani3
    Wed, 13 May 2015 08:53:03 GMT

    I'm sitting on 50% loss. Should we trust these brokers' forecast?
  • GKO by Steeltrader
    Wed, 13 May 2015 07:12:46 GMT

    Hi, guys I have been following greenko for a while now, could someone please explain the situation with its debt as to why its share price as been dropping?
  • IC by 4family
    Tue, 12 May 2015 16:48:37 GMT

    informative write up - hold